Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 5, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 5, 2026, 4:31 PM to 5:00 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 5, 2026 at 4:31 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 19.6471. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:00 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

1419.5425.08Sep 5, 4:31 PM ET5:00 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 4:31 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

1419.5425.08Sep 5, 4:31 PM ET5:00 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:31 PM ET19.6471
Projected value at 5:00 PM ET16.8956
Actual value at 5:00 PM ET24.6016
Projected change across the window-2.75151
Actual change across the window+4.95447
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading21 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.56×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall, while it rose instead. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.56 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 21 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 11 (4:41 PM ET), where they sat 0.0709503 apart, and furthest at bar 26 (4:57 PM ET) with a gap of 9.60775. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 25 (4:56 PM ET), a move of +1.73667. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:32 PM13.881618.5316+4.64992
64:37 PM13.271515.3237+2.05216
124:43 PM14.237114.5273+0.290286
184:49 PM15.385616.6392+1.25362
244:55 PM16.093323.2512+7.15785
295:00 PM16.895624.6016+7.70597

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

ADX predictor NinjaTrader Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on BTCUSD, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Next candle prediction indicator for MT5 on BTCUSD PredictIndicators is a next candle prediction indicator: it draws the predicted next candles of BTCUSD, up to 30 bars ahead, on your NinjaTrader 8 or MetaTrader 5 chart and redraws them as each bar closes. Next candle prediction indicator →

ChatGPT for NinjaTrader 8 on BTCUSD Yes. The chat indicator sits on your NinjaTrader 8 or MetaTrader 5 BTCUSD chart: ask where the prediction turns or what the open indicators agree on. It answers questions; it does not place trades. ChatGPT for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.