Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 4, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 4, 2026, 5:52 PM to 6:21 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 4, 2026 at 5:52 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 45.7427. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:21 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.8228.7844.74Sep 4, 5:52 PM ET6:21 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 5:52 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.8228.7844.74Sep 4, 5:52 PM ET6:21 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:52 PM ET45.7427
Projected value at 6:21 PM ET21.0695
Actual value at 6:21 PM ET10.6802
Projected change across the window-24.6732
Actual change across the window-35.0625
Bars moving the same direction25 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.70×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.70 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 86% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (6:14 PM ET), where they sat 1.57534 apart, and furthest at bar 14 (6:06 PM ET) with a gap of 18.7264. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 22 (6:14 PM ET), a move of -3.78761. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:53 PM28.779446.1426+17.3631
65:58 PM28.456544.856+16.3996
126:04 PM25.522444.1508+18.6284
186:10 PM23.562634.4131+10.8505
246:16 PM22.271115.5652-6.7059
296:21 PM21.069510.6802-10.3893

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.