Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 4, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 4, 2026, 5:47 PM to 6:16 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 4, 2026 at 5:47 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 45.88. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:16 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.7628.2843.8Sep 4, 5:47 PM ET6:16 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 5:47 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.7628.2843.8Sep 4, 5:47 PM ET6:16 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:47 PM ET45.88
Projected value at 6:16 PM ET20.4053
Actual value at 6:16 PM ET11.7767
Projected change across the window-25.4747
Actual change across the window-34.1033
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.75×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.75 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 18 (6:04 PM ET), where they sat 0.774414 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (5:47 PM ET) with a gap of 20.8227. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 17 (6:04 PM ET), a move of -3.78761. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:48 PM25.244544.856+19.6115
65:53 PM24.022144.1038+20.0817
125:59 PM22.672836.8949+14.222
186:05 PM21.809317.7295-4.07981
246:11 PM20.794810.6802-10.1147
296:16 PM20.405311.7767-8.62857

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Buy predictive ADX for MT5 Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on BTCUSD, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

MT5 ChatGPT assistant for BTCUSD A general chatbot only sees a screenshot. The PredictIndicators chat indicator reads your live BTCUSD chart in NinjaTrader 8 or MT5, including every indicator you have open and the predicted candles. ChatGPT for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NinjaTrader future ADX trend strength for Bitcoin Yes. PredictIndicators runs inside NinjaTrader 8: the predicted BTCUSD candles and the predicted indicators sit on your own chart, next to the indicators you already use. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.